ARMENIA ESCALATES THE CONFLICT
BY STRATEGIC WEAPON SALVOS BEHIND THE FRONTLINES
Dr. Can Kasapoglu, Director of Security and Defense Research Program, EDAM
Sine Ozkarasahin, Researcher, EDAM
Political-Military Assessment:
- On October 4, Armenian missile forces hit Azerbaijan’s highly-populated city of Ganja, claiming the lives of civilians.
- Armenian forces, overwhelmed by Azerbaijan’s intensive drone warfare campaign, opt for exercising an effective intra-war deterrence strategy to control the escalatory patterns within the ongoing war which, so far, has been dominated the Azerbaijani military. The underlying objective is to spark a massive Azerbaijani retaliation to the Armenian principle which would inevitably drag Russia into the conflict due to the security agreements between Moscow and Yerevan.
- Armenia has several multiple-launch rocket systems and tactical ballistic missiles in its arsenal to execute the attack. Although the Russian-manufactured SS-26 Iskander is one of them, we believe that, at this point, Armenia would not escalate the conflict to the utmost extreme by using the highest-end Russian weaponry available.
- Azerbaijan’s response, as to the target set and locations, will determine the trajectory of the conflict.
- Depending on different launch positions, below, we prepared 4 major scenarios as to the weapon system of choice, possible launch areas, and estimated flight path for the homing missile or rocket.
Scenario 1:
CONOPS (Concepts of Operations): Tactical ballistic missile launch from the Armenian 4th Army Corps positions in Yeghengnadzor
Estimated flight path: More than 130km
Possible Weapon Systems of Choice:
- SS-26 Iskander (280km max. range for the export variant at the Armenian inventory – low probability & high impact scenario, as the SS-26 remains the most advanced strategic weapon in the Armenian arsenal –)
- Scud-B (300km range)
- Tochka (advanced variants up to some 180km range)
Scenario 2:
CONOPS: Tactical ballistic missile salvo from the launch positions around Erebuni airbase
Estimated flight path: Some 160 – 170km
Possible Weapon Systems of Choice:
- SS-26 Iskander (280km max. range for the export variant at the Armenian inventory – low probability & high impact scenario, as the SS-26 remains the most advanced strategic weapon in the Armenian arsenal –)
- Scud-B (300km range)
- Tochka (advanced variants up to some 180km range)
Scenario 3:
CONOPS: Multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) or tactical ballistic missile launch from the Armenian frontier into Azerbaijan.
Estimated flight path: Some 60km
Possible Weapon Systems of Choice:
- MLRS:
BM-30 Smerch (300mm heavy MLRS, 90km max. range with the modernization in the 2000s), WM-80 (Chinese-manufactured 273mm MLRS, up to 120km range)
Tactical Ballistic Missiles:
- Scud-B (300km range)
- Tochka (advanced variants up to some 180km range)
- SS-26 Iskander (280km max. range for the export variant at the Armenian inventory – low probability & high impact scenario, as the SS-26 remains the most advanced strategic weapon in the Armenian arsenal –)
Scenario 4:
CONOPS: Tactical ballistic missile or MLRS launch from the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territories, Xankendi.
Estimated Flight Path: Some 100km
Possible Weapon Systems of Choice:
- MLRS:
WM-80 (Chinese-manufactured 273mm MLRS, up to 120km range)
Tactical Ballistic Missiles:
- Scud-B (300km range)
- Tochka (advanced variants up to some 180km range)
- SS-26 Iskander (280km max. range for the export variant at the Armenian inventory – low probability & high impact scenario, as the SS-26 remains the most advanced strategic weapon in the Armenian arsenal –)
